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沐沐的方盒 · 2024年05月23日

配置1中cash和government bond加起来比例不也是85%吗?为什么不能选1?

NO.PZ2018031301000005

问题如下:

Viktoria Johansson is newly appointed as manager of ABC Corporation’s pension fund. The current market value of the fund’s assets is $10 billion, and the present value of the fund’s liabilities is $8.5 billion. The fund has historically been managed using an asset-only approach, but Johansson recommends to ABC’s board of directors that they adopt a liability-relative approach, specifically the hedging/return-seeking portfolios approach. Johansson assumes that the returns of the fund’s liabilities are driven by changes in the returns of index-linked government bonds. Exhibit 1 presents three potential asset allocation choices for the fund.

Exhibit 1 Potential Asset Allocations Choices for ABC Corp’s Pension Fund


Determine which asset allocation in Exhibit 1 would be most appropriate for Johansson given her recommendation. Justify your response.

选项:

解释:

■ Allocation 3 is most appropriate.
■ To fully hedge the fund’s liabilities, 85% ($8.5 billion/$10.0 billion) of the fund’s assets would be linked to index-linked government bonds.
■ Residual $1.5 billion surplus would be invested into a return-seeking portfolio.

The pension fund currently has a surplus of $1.5 billion ($10.0 billion – $8.5 billion). To adopt a hedging/return-seeking portfolios approach, Johansson would first hedge the liabilities by allocating an amount equal to the present value of the fund’s liabilities, $8.5 billion, to a hedging portfolio. The hedging portfolio must include assets whose returns are driven by the same factors that drive the returns of the liabilities, which in this case are the index-linked government bonds.

So, Johansson should allocate 85% ($8.5 billion/$10.0 billion) of the fund’s assets to index-linked government bonds. Te residual $1.5 billion surplus would then be invested into a return-seeking portfolio. Therefore, Allocation 3 would be the most appropriate asset allocation for the fund because it allocates 85% of the fund’s assets to index-linked government bonds and the remainder to a return seeking portfolio consisting of corporate bonds and equities.

如题

1 个答案
已采纳答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2024年05月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好:


The two-portfolio approach 包括 hedging portfolio 和 return-seeking portfolio。hedging/return-seeking 首先要考虑的是hedging portfolio,只有liabilities全部覆盖了,多出来的部分才能进行return-seeking。

所以在传统的hedging/return-seeking方法下,一定是 overfunded ,否则没有多余的部分进行return-seeking。因为liabilities已经全部覆盖了,也就是说只要有未来现金流的流出,hedging portfolio这部分就有现金流的流入,完全匹配上了,因此return-seeking的部分可以放心大胆的投资,不需要再保守了。


现在fund liabilities占 85% ,并且文中说 Johansson assumes that the returns of the fund’s liabilities are driven by changes in the returns of index-linked government bonds. 也就是说能够很好地匹配fund liabilities的是 index-linked government bonds, 而Allocation 3 的 index-linked government bonds 占比正好是85%,所以最合适。

index-linked government bonds 通常是与CPI指数挂钩的,也就是说可以抗通胀,cash虽然很稳健但是抗不了通胀。另外,既然是债券,定期是可以拿到coupon的,投资cash没有coupon,所以不能跟fund liability的现金流相匹配。这里的匹配是现金流完全对应上的才是匹配。


Allocation 1的 index-linked government的占比是70%,少于85%,虽然 equity 投的更多,但是不能很好的hedging liabilities。


另外这道题还有一个非常关键的地方:“the returns of the fund’s liabilities are driven by changes in the returns of index-linked government bonds”

这句话很重要,是给出信息点的句子,这句话的意思是负债和抗通胀债券的收益的驱动因素是一样的,即收益率一样,不会出现hedging portfolio就是抗通胀债券的现值低于liability现值的情况。

也就是说能够很好地匹配fund liabilities的是 index-linked government, 而Allocation 3 的 index-linked government占比正好是85%,所以最合适。

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