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陶朱 · 2024年05月02日

为什么这里95%用的是1.645,按数量那章里学的,95%置信区间不应该是1.96才对吗?

NO.PZ2023091701000083

问题如下:

An analyst has been asked to estimate the VaR of a long position in a put option on the stock of Big Pharma, Inc. The stock is trading at USD 26.00 with a daily volatility of 1.5%, and the option is at-the-money with a delta of -0.5. Using the delta-normal method, which of the following choices is closest to the 1-day 95% VaR of the option position?

选项:

A.USD 0.32

B.USD 0.45

C.USD 0.64

D.USD 0.91

解释:

A is correct. The variance of a portfolio with respect to its n risk factors is

where ai is the delta of the portfolio with respect to the ith risk factor and σi is the standard deviation of theith risk factor. The option’s standard deviation is therefore

the average change in a linear portfolio is zero. Therefore, when U equals 1.645, the point

of the standard normal distribution corresponding to the 95th percentile, the deltanormal

VaR of the option at the 95% confidence level is

𝜎p*𝑈 = 0.195*1.645 = 𝑈𝑆𝐷 0.3208

B is incorrect. USD 0.45 is the 1-day 99% VaR of the option.

C is incorrect. USD 0.64 is the 1-day 95% VaR if the delta of the option is 1.0.

D is incorrect. USD 0.91 is the 1-day 99% VaR of the option if the delta of the option is 1.0

如题目所言,几道题都是用的1.645,很迷惑忍不住问了

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa39 · 2024年05月02日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


因为数量里所有置信区间对应的都是双尾,双尾的话95%对应的是1.96


这里95%的VaR是单尾,95%单尾对应1.65。我们考试里面VaR都是单尾的。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!