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biguo · 2024年03月29日

Peak late expansion

NO.PZ2021120102000026

问题如下:

Which of the following phases of the credit cycle typicallyinvolves a decline in the number of issuer defaults?

选项:

A.

Late expansion phase

B.

Early expansion phase

C.

Peak phase

解释:

A is correct. The late expansion phase is typicallyassociated with accelerating growth, peak profits, stable leverage, and a decline indefaults.

我感觉peak和late expansion阶段其实性质都差不多,为什么一个违约率是稳定的。一个是下降的

1 个答案

pzqa31 · 2024年03月29日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


总体来讲这些经济阶段其实是逐渐渐进的过程。

late expansion是扩张后期,经历了早期的政策刺激、经济增长,此时经济已经逐渐复苏,企业还处在扩张的阶段,投资热情还没有退去,所以此时违约率是下降的。

peak phase是一轮经济增长周期的后期,此时经济处于过热状态,整个经济体产能过剩,供大于求,企业产品销售出现颓势,现金流下降,个别尾部企业因为现金流问题出现违约,所以,此时经济体的违约数量是保持不变或者增加。




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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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