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Betty · 2024年03月23日

quantitative approach可以forecast future不是吗？

  1. CFA III
  2. Equity

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201809170400000703

问题如下：

Which characteristic suggested by Knight to describe the quantitative approachto active management is incorrect?

选项：

A.

Characteristic 1

B.

Characteristic 2

C.

Characteristic 3

解释：

C is correct. Quantitative analysis uses a company’s history to arrive at investment decisions. The quantitative decision-making process is systematic and non-discretionary (whereas the fundamental decision-making process is more discretionary), and the focus of the quantitative approach is on factors across a potentially large group of stocks (whereas fundamental strategies focus on a relatively small group of stocks). In contrast, fundamental analysis (not quantitative analysis) emphasizes forecasting future prospects, including the future earnings and cash flows of a company.

quantitative approach可以forecast future不是吗？

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年03月23日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


quantitative approach可以forecast future不是吗？


Hello，亲爱的同学~

quantitative approach是指量化交易方法，计算机自动做决策。

计算机做决策，是基于过去的历史数据，并不能预测未来。

主观交易才能预测未来。


例如我们之前学习的DCF（现金流折现）模型，需要对一家上市公司未来每年的盈利进行预测，然后贴现到现在，计算出公司价值。

那么对公司未来的盈利进行预测，就要考查，未来国家经济的方向，行业竞争格局，经济周期阶段，公司的竞争优势，公司行业地位，企业经营战略，管理层个人能力等多个方面。

这些方面的思考过于复杂，而且很多是定性的内容，以目前计算机技术来说，还暂时处理不了这些问题。

因此，目前CFA中的quantitative approach，是无法对未来做预测的。

不排除未来人工智能发展到一定高度后，计算机可以像人类一样，具备预测未来的能力。不过现在还是以quantitative approach不能预测未来，来解题。

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NO.PZ201809170400000703 问题如下 Whicharacteristic suggesteKnight to scrithe quantitative approachto active management is incorrect? A.Characteristi B.Characteristi C.Characteristi C is correct. Quantitative analysis uses a company’s history to arrive investment cisions. The quantitative cision-making process is systematic annon-scretionary (wherethe funmentcision-making process is more scretionary), anthe focus of the quantitative approais on factors across a potentially large group of stocks (wherefunmentstrategies focus on a relatively small group of stocks). In contrast, funmentanalysis (not quantitative analysis) emphasizes forecasting future prospects, inclung the future earnings ancash flows of a company. 没明白为什么选这个

2023-08-09 00:33 1 · 回答

对于characteristic 2这句话请教下有一个小小疑问，在quantitative metho，不是在sign stage要靠juement吗（下图为出处），那也就是，并不全是non-scretionary，对吗？

2020-08-30 17:01 1 · 回答

CharacteristiCharacteristi C is correct. Quantitative analysis uses a company’s history to arrive investment cisions. The quantitative cision-making process is systematic annon-scretionary (wherethe funmentcision-making process is more scretionary), anthe focus of the quantitative approais on factors across a potentially large group of stocks (wherefunmentstrategies focus on a relatively small group of stocks). In contrast, funmentanalysis (not quantitative analysis) emphasizes forecasting future prospects, inclung the future earnings ancash flows of a company. 这道题解析说不能预测未来，那岂不是跟第11题矛盾了？

2020-02-09 20:02 1 · 回答