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沪上小王子 · 2024年01月20日

cap rate, NOI的关系是怎样的,如何理解答案中的这句话

NO.PZ2018091901000061

问题如下:

An analyst at a real estate investment management firm seeks to establish expectations for rate of return for properties in the industrial sector over the next year. She has obtained the following information:

Estimate the expected return from the industrial sector properties based on the data provided.

选项:

A.

10.7%

B.

11.7%

C.

5.7%

解释:

B is correct.

The expected change in the cap rate from 5.7% to 5.5% represents a (5.5% –5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5% decrease.

Using the expression E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7%+ (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.

Note: As the cap rate is expected to decrease, property values are expected to increase, hence the cap rate change contributes to the expected return.

解析:

上限率从5.7%到5.5%的预期变化为(5.5% -5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5%。

使用表达式E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7%+ (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.

注意到,由于上限税率预期会下降,物业价值预期会上升,因此上限税率的改变对预期回报有贡献。

As the cap rate is expected to decrease, property values are expected to increase, hence the cap rate change contributes to the expected return.

记得老师在经典题中提了一下关于cap rate与NOI的关系,没太理解,请老师再解释一下,谢谢。

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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月22日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


记得老师在经典题中提了一下关于cap rate与NOI的关系,没太理解,请老师再解释一下,谢谢。


Hello,亲爱的同学~

两者的关系可以通过公式来理解:

cap rate = NOI / 房价。


NOI是净运营收入,也就是租金扣掉各种成本后的净收入。

因此,cap rate放到国内,可以近似理解为:租售比的概念。


那么租售比下降,可以是租金下降,房价不变。也可以是租金不变,房价上涨。

通常来说,现实中,租金是比较稳定的,波动不会太大。而房价会有很大的波动。

因此,一般来说:租售比下降,意味着房价在上涨。



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