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Felix Young · 2024年01月11日

是这么理解吗?

NO.PZ2021120102000009

问题如下:

An active investor enters a duration-neutral yield curve flattening trade that combines 2-year and 10-year Treasury positions. Under which of the following yield curve scenarios would you expect the investor to realize the greatest portfolio gain?

选项:

A.

Bear steepening

B.

bull flattening

C.

Yield curve inversion

解释:

C is correct.

A duration-neutral flattening trade involves a short 2-year Bond position and a long 10-year bond position, which have a matched duration or portfolio duration of zero. This portfolio will realize a gain if the slope of the yield curvethat is, the difference between short-term and long-term yieldsdeclines. Yield curve inversion is an extreme version of flattening in which the spread between long-term and short-term yields-to-maturity falls below zero.

The bear steepening in A involves an unchanged 2-year yield-to-maturity with a rise in the 10-year yield-to-maturity, causing a portfolio loss. The bull flattening in B combines a constant 2-year yield-to-maturity with lower 10-year rates, resulting in a gain on the 10-year bond position and an unchanged 2-year bond position.

老师好,这道题问什么时候收益最大。其实C收益最大,两个头寸(一个long一个short)都可以挣钱;而AB选项里两个头寸(一个long一个short)对应的是一个挣钱、另一个亏钱,从而抵消了。所以从赚钱的角度看,C因为能挣两个方向(一个long一个short)的钱、绝对收益最大,另外A和B只能挣一个方向的钱而去另一个方向有亏损、会抵消。


是这么理解吗?

4 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2024年02月06日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


可以分类讨论,前提是要用long/short策略,因为要达到duration neutral:

对于bull flatten:利率整体下降,长端利率下降多,长期债券价格涨的多,短端利率下降少,短期债券价格涨的少,此时应该Long10年期,short2年期。

对于bear flatten:利率整体上涨,长端利率涨的少,长期债券价格跌的少,短端利率涨的多,短期债券价格跌的多,此时应该long10年期,short2年期。


综上,不管是利率上涨还是下跌,flatten都是要long长期short短期。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

Felix Young · 2024年02月06日

明白,就差再往下想一步。老师这样说我就理解问题所在了,谢谢!

pzqa31 · 2024年02月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


不客气哈,祝你考试顺利!

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

pzqa31 · 2024年02月05日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


因为flatten一定是长端利率相对于短端利率是下降的。

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pzqa31 · 2024年01月12日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题说的是要用2年期与10年期债券构建一个duration neutral的策略,这种策略在收益率曲线flatten下获得最大收益,然后让选出合适的flatten情形。

我们先分析duration neutral

要想duration neutral,2年期债与10年期债肯定是相反头寸,即一个是Long,一个是short。

如果想在收益率曲线flatten下有利可图,可以判断2年期是short头寸,10年期是Long头寸(假设收益率曲线下降,2年期利率下降的少,10年期利率下降的多,也就是bull flatten,显然,只有long 10年期,short 2年期,才会在duration neutral的条件下有收益,若long 1年期,short 10年期,是有亏损的)。

明确头寸后,我们分析选项

选项A:bear flatten,长短期都上涨,长期上涨的少,短期上涨的多,可以看成长期不变,短期上涨,short 2年期,long 10年期可以获利,这个获利主要是由short 2年期驱动。

 

选项B:bull flatten,长短期都下降,长期下降的多,短期下降的少,可以看成短期不变,长期下降,short 2年期,long 10年期也可以获利,这个获利主要由long 10年期驱动。

 

选项C:yield curve inversion,收益率曲线变inverted,即,短期利率大于长期利率,收益率曲线向下倾斜,这说明短期利率上涨很多,长期利率下降很多,二者变化方向相反,short 2年期与Long 10年期都可以获利,所以如果收益率曲线发生这种变动,short 2Y,long 10Y的收益是最大的。

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