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pseudonym · 2023年11月28日

本题的look ahead bias和CME里的用修正数据产生的look ahead bias如何区分?

NO.PZ2023010903000051

问题如下:

As an additional step in back-testing of the strategy, Nowacki computes historical price/book ratios (P/Bs) and price/earnings ratios (P/Es) using calendar year-end (31 December) stock prices and companies’ financial statement data for the same calendar year. He notes that the financial statement data for a given calendar year are not typically published until weeks after the end of that year.

Nowacki’s calculated price/book ratios (P/Bs) and price/earnings ratios (P/Es), in his back-testing of the new strategy, are a problem because of:

选项:

A.

data mining

B.

look-ahead bias

C.

survivorship bias

解释:

Look-ahead bias results from using information that was unknown or unavailable at the time the investment decision was made. An example of this bias is using financial accounting data for a company at a point before the data were actually released by the company. Nowacki computed historical P/Bs and P/Es using calendar year-end (31 December) stock prices and companies’ financial statement data for the same calendar year, even though the financial statement data for that calendar year were likely unavailable at year-end.

Data mining refers to automated computational procedures for discovering patterns in large datasets, which can introduce a bias known as overfitting. Survivorship bias occurs when back-testing uses companies that are in business today but ignores companies that have left the investment universe.

如题,本题的look ahead bias和CME里的用修正数据产生的look ahead bias如何区分?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年11月29日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


如题,本题的look ahead bias和CME里的用修正数据产生的look ahead bias如何区分?


CEM里的look ahead bias,和equity里look ahead bias,是一个含义,不需要做区分呀。

只要在回测的时候,引用了未来的数据,就是look ahead bias。

在国内量化行业,有一个名词术语:未来函数。

同学有时间的话可以搜索一下“未来函数”在中文互联网上的解释。国内的“未来函数”就是CFA里的“look ahead bias”


无论是CME里引用了修正过的经济数据,还是equity这里引用了还未公布的报表数据,都属于:使用了未来的数据。

因此都符合look ahead bias

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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