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Honora · 2023年11月14日

对比前面相同的题干

NO.PZ2023040601000081

问题如下:

Carlisle predicts that Country #3 will slip into a recession next quarter. She thinks it will be short-lived, lasting only 12 months or so, and considers the impact of such a recession on the performance of the country’s stocks and bonds.


Based on Exhibit 2, if Carlisle’s prediction for Country #3 is realized, then over the next 12 months:

选项:

A.

Bond A would be expected to outperform Bond C.

B.

Bond B would be expected to outperform Bond A.

C.

Bond C would be expected to outperform Bond B.

解释:

If Country #3 experiences a recession over the next 12 months, the credit spreads for corporate bonds would be expected to widen as investors sell the low-quality debt of issuers with high default risk and trade up to the higher-quality debt of issuers with low default risk. The issuers with a good credit rating (like Aaa rated Bond A) tend to outperform those with lower ratings (like B3 rated Bond C) as the spread between low and higher quality issuers widens. As a result, Bond A would be expected to outperform Bond C over the next 12 months

slip into recession: yield curve upward slopping, 经济马上就要恢复,马上复苏 这种情况下,预期未来经济会变好,不应该是bond c outperform吗?

3 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年11月16日

@Honora

同学你好,

助教的系统和题号与学员都不同,需要提供一个类似本题这样“PZ2023040601000081”的题号。

星星_品职助教 · 2023年11月15日

@Honora 可以提供一下“前面那一道题”的题号或者截个图。

Honora · 2023年11月15日

经典题#475 对比#485

星星_品职助教 · 2023年11月14日

同学你好,

slip into recession是经济进入衰退,根据题干,这个衰退虽然短但也会延续12个月(lasting only 12 months)。所以要看的是经济衰退时的情况。

经济衰退下评级越高的bond表现越好。所以A类评级的BondA 是outperform的。

Honora · 2023年11月15日

那前面那一道题 说yield curve向上的原因是马上就要经济复苏,还是不明白,怎么确认是讲的是“马上经济复苏”还是按“正在recession”?

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