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Pavel Korchagin · 2023年11月13日

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NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


1.A和B是什么意思,为什么是错的?

2.A和B跟答案的公式有什么关系??

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年11月14日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


1.A和B是什么意思,为什么是错的?

Hello,亲爱的同学~

A的含义是,高收益率的货币,会升值。

B的含义是:EM国家货币,与DM国家货币的利差,会增加。


2.A和B跟答案的公式有什么关系??

题目问,什么情况下会是EM国家货币贬值。

根据公式:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

可以发现:

风险溢价(risk premium)越高的货币,越会贬值。

实际利率越低(real interest rate )的货币,越会贬值

这两句话就是解题的依据


由于通胀膨胀也是一种风险溢价,因此在本题:

通胀高的货币,会贬值

实际利率低的货币,会贬值。


C选项,EM与DM的通胀差升高,EM 货币贬值,根据“通胀高的货币,会贬值”,C 正确。


而A和B涉及名义利率,名义利差。

名义利率 = 实际利率 + 通胀。

当名义利率高的时候,我们无法得知,是实际利率更高,还是通胀更高。

如果是实际利率高,引起名义利率高,汇率是升值。

如果是通胀更高,引起名义利率高,汇率是贬值。


因此不选A和B







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