请问无套利模型不是基于expectation，那是基于什么呢？

NO.PZ2023020101000021 问题如下 High Street Investment Management is aninvestment subaisory firm partnering with RegistereInvestment Aisors toprovi counsel for options trang strategies. Scott Cummins is High Street’sCEO anchief investment officer. Phyllis Schwartz lea the clientrelationship team. viSpelng is a recent college graate, who just joinehe firm analyst. Cummings anSchwartz are concting introctorytraining session on options pricing, focusing on the binomioption valuationmol (i.e., the binomimol).Cummins begins the session listing, inExhibit 1, variables anvalues for a binomimol to illustrate outcome. Exhibit1: BinomiMol Variables anValuesSchwartz states, “The one-periobinomimolis baseon the no-arbitrage approain whiinvestor es not take anyrisk or use his own money. Baseon the information in Exhibit 1, theprobability of up move is 45%. For investor, the no-arbitrage approaissimilto both the expectations approaanthe scountecash flowapproach. Eaapproais baseon the investor’s expectation regarng thefuture course of the unrlying stoprice.”Is Schwartz’s statement about the one-perioinomimol most likelycorrect? A.Yes. B.No,she is incorreabout the probability of up move. C.No,she is incorreabout expectations of future stoprices. Schwartz’s statement is incorrect. Theexpectations approais a variation of the no-arbitrage approato the binomialmol. The results of eaare intical. Unr the no-arbitrage approaanhe expectations approach, expecteoptions payoffs are a function of arisk-neutrprobability. The investor’s outlook with respeto the futurecourse of the stopriis not a relevant consiration for the no-arbitrageapproaor the expectations approach. The investor’s outlook with respetothe future course of the stopriis a relevant consiration for the scounteash flow approato securities valuation.Schwartz’s statement with respeto theprobability of up move is correct. The calculation follows:π=[ FV( 1 )−]/( u−)=[1.02−0.75 ]/( 1.35−0.75 )=0.27/0.60=0.45=45% 怎么理解“现金流折现法需要考虑投资者对股票价格未来走势的预期，但无套利法和预期法不需要考虑对股票价格未来走势的预期。”？能举个具体例子吗？

NO.PZ2023020101000021问题如下 High Street Investment Management is aninvestment subaisory firm partnering with RegistereInvestment Aisors toprovi counsel for options trang strategies. Scott Cummins is High Street’sCEO anchief investment officer. Phyllis Schwartz lea the clientrelationship team. viSpelng is a recent college graate, who just joinehe firm analyst. Cummings anSchwartz are concting introctorytraining session on options pricing, focusing on the binomioption valuationmol (i.e., the binomimol).Cummins begins the session listing, inExhibit 1, variables anvalues for a binomimol to illustrate outcome. Exhibit1: BinomiMol Variables anValuesSchwartz states, “The one-periobinomimolis baseon the no-arbitrage approain whiinvestor es not take anyrisk or use his own money. Baseon the information in Exhibit 1, theprobability of up move is 45%. For investor, the no-arbitrage approaissimilto both the expectations approaanthe scountecash flowapproach. Eaapproais baseon the investor’s expectation regarng thefuture course of the unrlying stoprice.”Is Schwartz’s statement about the one-perioinomimol most likelycorrect? A.Yes.B.No,she is incorreabout the probability of up move. C.No,she is incorreabout expectations of future stoprices. Schwartz’s statement is incorrect. Theexpectations approais a variation of the no-arbitrage approato the binomialmol. The results of eaare intical. Unr the no-arbitrage approaanhe expectations approach, expecteoptions payoffs are a function of arisk-neutrprobability. The investor’s outlook with respeto the futurecourse of the stopriis not a relevant consiration for the no-arbitrageapproaor the expectations approach. The investor’s outlook with respetothe future course of the stopriis a relevant consiration for the scounteash flow approato securities valuation.Schwartz’s statement with respeto theprobability of up move is correct. The calculation follows:π=[ FV( 1 )−]/( u−)=[1.02−0.75 ]/( 1.35−0.75 )=0.27/0.60=0.45=45% 请问Schwartz 说的第一句话对吗

NO.PZ2023020101000021 问题如下 High Street Investment Management is aninvestment subaisory firm partnering with RegistereInvestment Aisors toprovi counsel for options trang strategies. Scott Cummins is High Street’sCEO anchief investment officer. Phyllis Schwartz lea the clientrelationship team. viSpelng is a recent college graate, who just joinehe firm analyst. Cummings anSchwartz are concting introctorytraining session on options pricing, focusing on the binomioption valuationmol (i.e., the binomimol).Cummins begins the session listing, inExhibit 1, variables anvalues for a binomimol to illustrate outcome. Exhibit1: BinomiMol Variables anValuesSchwartz states, “The one-periobinomimolis baseon the no-arbitrage approain whiinvestor es not take anyrisk or use his own money. Baseon the information in Exhibit 1, theprobability of up move is 45%. For investor, the no-arbitrage approaissimilto both the expectations approaanthe scountecash flowapproach. Eaapproais baseon the investor’s expectation regarng thefuture course of the unrlying stoprice.”Is Schwartz’s statement about the one-perioinomimol most likelycorrect? A.Yes. B.No,she is incorreabout the probability of up move. C.No,she is incorreabout expectations of future stoprices. Schwartz’s statement is incorrect. Theexpectations approais a variation of the no-arbitrage approato the binomialmol. The results of eaare intical. Unr the no-arbitrage approaanhe expectations approach, expecteoptions payoffs are a function of arisk-neutrprobability. The investor’s outlook with respeto the futurecourse of the stopriis not a relevant consiration for the no-arbitrageapproaor the expectations approach. The investor’s outlook with respetothe future course of the stopriis a relevant consiration for the scounteash flow approato securities valuation.Schwartz’s statement with respeto theprobability of up move is correct. The calculation follows:π=[ FV( 1 )−]/( u−)=[1.02−0.75 ]/( 1.35−0.75 )=0.27/0.60=0.45=45% π=[ FV( 1 )−]/( u−)=[ 1.02−0.75 ]/( 1.35−0.75 )=0.27/0.60=0.45=45%πu=（1+Rf-/(u-么不是？这个FV（1）代表啥？

NO.PZ2023020101000021 问题如下 High Street Investment Management is aninvestment subaisory firm partnering with RegistereInvestment Aisors toprovi counsel for options trang strategies. Scott Cummins is High Street’sCEO anchief investment officer. Phyllis Schwartz lea the clientrelationship team. viSpelng is a recent college graate, who just joinehe firm analyst. Cummings anSchwartz are concting introctorytraining session on options pricing, focusing on the binomioption valuationmol (i.e., the binomimol).Cummins begins the session listing, inExhibit 1, variables anvalues for a binomimol to illustrate outcome. Exhibit1: BinomiMol Variables anValuesSchwartz states, “The one-periobinomimolis baseon the no-arbitrage approain whiinvestor es not take anyrisk or use his own money. Baseon the information in Exhibit 1, theprobability of up move is 45%. For investor, the no-arbitrage approaissimilto both the expectations approaanthe scountecash flowapproach. Eaapproais baseon the investor’s expectation regarng thefuture course of the unrlying stoprice.”Is Schwartz’s statement about the one-perioinomimol most likelycorrect? A.Yes. B.No,she is incorreabout the probability of up move. C.No,she is incorreabout expectations of future stoprices. Schwartz’s statement is incorrect. Theexpectations approais a variation of the no-arbitrage approato the binomialmol. The results of eaare intical. Unr the no-arbitrage approaanhe expectations approach, expecteoptions payoffs are a function of arisk-neutrprobability. The investor’s outlook with respeto the futurecourse of the stopriis not a relevant consiration for the no-arbitrageapproaor the expectations approach. The investor’s outlook with respetothe future course of the stopriis a relevant consiration for the scounteash flow approato securities valuation.Schwartz’s statement with respeto theprobability of up move is correct. The calculation follows:π=[ FV( 1 )−]/( u−)=[1.02−0.75 ]/( 1.35−0.75 )=0.27/0.60=0.45=45% 老师，C为什么错？