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pengyaning · 2023年10月17日

Monte Carlo simulation

NO.PZ2023091601000092

问题如下:

Consider a stock that pays no dividends, has a volatility of 25% per annum and an expected return of 13% per annum. Suppose that the current share price of the stock, S0, is USD 30. You decide to model the stock price behavior using a discrete-time version of geometric Brownian motion and to simulate paths of the stock price using Monte Carlo simulation. Let Δt denote the time interval used and let St denote the stock price at time interval t. So, according to your model,, whereεis a standard normal variable.

To implement this simulation, you generate a path of the stock price by starting at t = 0, generating a sample for ε updating the stock price according to the model, incrementing t by 1, and repeating this process until the end of the horizon is reached. Which of the following strategies for generating a sample forεwill implement this simulation properly?

选项:

A.

Generate a sample for ε by using the inverse of the standard normal cumulative distribution of a sample value drawn from a uniform distribution between 0 and 1.

B.

Generate a sample for ε by sampling from a normal distribution with mean 0.13 and standard deviation 0.25.

C.

Generate a sample for ε by using the inverse of the standard normal cumulative distribution of a sample value drawn from a uniform distribution between 0 and 1. Use Cholesky decomposition to correlate this sample with the sample from the previous time interval.

D.

Generate a sample for ε by sampling from a normal distribution with mean 0.13 and standard deviation 0.25. Use Cholesky decomposition to correlate this sample with the sample from the previous time interval.

解释:

Monte Carlo Simulation assumes independence across time so there is no need to correlate samples from time period to time period, eliminating c and d. Choice a describes a valid method for generating a sample from a standard normal distribution.

前面一道题目中关于“Correlations among variables can be incorporated into a Monte Carlo simulation.“的表述是正确的,为什么这道题“Use Cholesky decomposition to correlate this sample with the sample from the previous time interval.“的表述是错误的?

1 个答案

DD仔_品职助教 · 2023年10月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


因为D在最后强调了需要用到时间区间,但是MCS是不需要用到时间区间的转化的。所以D错

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