NO.PZ201512020800000105
问题如下：
5. If Smith’s statement on parity conditions is correct, future spot exchange rates are most likely to be forecast by:
选项：
A.current spot rates.
B.forward exchange rates.
C.inflation rate differentials.
解释：
B is correct.
By rearranging the terms of the equation defining covered interest rate parity, and assuming that uncovered interest rate parity is in effect, the forward exchange rate is equal to the expected future spot exchange rate, , with the expected percentage change in the spot rate equal to the interest rate differential. Thus, the forward exchange rate is an unbiased forecast of the future spot exchange rate.
考点: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
解析：如果covered和uncovered都成立，那么forward rate 是future spot rate预测的一个无偏估计量。
这题直接考察结论，这个结论需要大家记住。
根据UNCOVERED IRP,future spot rate的计算公式也是通过即期汇率计算出来的，那么为什么不选即期汇率？
