NO.PZ2023032701000023
问题如下：
Barton’s manager, George Eckhart, asks her to evaluate the stocks of two companies for possible inclusion in that fund: XRail Company (XRL) and Z-Tarp Limited (ZTL), (see Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1
Selected Stock Data for XRL and ZTL and Additional Market Information
Barton and Eckhart discuss the impact of a company’s growth rate on its future stock price. Barton determines XRL’s growth rate of earnings for the period from 2011 to 2015 and compares it to the current nominal growth rate of the US economy. She concludes that XRL is likely to be in the transition stage of growth.
Barton's conclusion that XRL is in the transition phase is best described as:
选项：
A.correct
incorrect, because the company is in the supernormal growth phase
incorrect, because the company is in the mature phase
解释：
Barton’s statement is incorrect because the company is in the mature phase. The economy’s nominal growth rate, from Exhibit 1, is real growth rate + inflation = 3.7% + 2% = 5.7%.
XRL’s compound growth rate, over the four-year period is 5.7%, approximately equal to the economy’s growth rate.
g=(3.15/2.52)1/4-1=5.7%
Where g is the compound growth rate in earnings and EPS is earnings per share.
A company in the mature phase typically has earnings growing at a rate comparable to the economy’s growth rate.
老师，您好！
从解析中看，2011-2015这四年earnings的复合增长率的确是5.7%，和gdp的名义增长率一致，所以判断为公司处于成熟发展阶段。但是如果逐年计算公司的利润增长率分别是：9.9%，7.9%，3.0%，2.3%，逐年递减，从高于gdp增长率到低于gdp增长率，是否可以判断为从高速到低速的过渡期甚至衰退期呢？谢谢！
