题目里没有说两个事件是独立的吧，应该不能直接乘？

问题如下：

In a financial report represents the following information:

• There is 60% probability that stock price in US markets will rise
• There is 70% probability that the bond market will increase over a 12-month period
• There is at least 60% probability that both events will happen

Jack says there is conjunction fallacy in the report. Justify why Jack is correct.

选项：

解释：

Combining this event—stock price in US markets will rise—with an expectation of that the bond market will increase over a 12-month period inappropriately combines probabilities and reflects the conjunction fallacy. The probability of two independent events occurring in conjunction is never greater than the probability of either event occurring alone. The probability that the stock price in US markets will rise is 0.6, the probability that the bond market will increase over a 12-month period is 0.7, and the two events are independent. Therefore, the probability of the two events occurring in the outlined scenario is just 0.42 (= 0.6 × 0.7).