No.PZ2019120301000300 (选择题)

问题如下：

Question

An analyst is forecasting the gross profit of the following three companies. He uses the five-year average gross margins and forecasts sales based on an internal model.

For which of the three companies will the forecast of gross profit be most reliable?

选项：

A.Company 3 B.Company 2 C.Company 1

解释：

Solution

B is correct. Company 2 will have the most reliable forecast because it has been offering the same products with the same technology, and their demand and cost structures have been stable too. Therefore, the relationship between sales and gross profit (i.e., gross margin) should be stable, and the use of average gross margins will be the most reliable.

A is incorrect because Company 3 has been renewing its product offerings constantly, usually resulting in a less stable relationship between sales and gross profit.

C is incorrect because Company 1 recently introduced new products, usually causing a less stable relationship between sales and gross profit.