NO.PZ202105270100000202
问题如下：
At the investment committee meeting, the firm’s chief economist predicts that the economy will enter the late expansion phase of the business cycle in the next 12 months.
Discuss, based on the chief economist’s prediction, the implications for the following:
i. Bond yields
ii. Equity returns
iii. Short-term interest rates
选项：
解释：
Bond yields:
In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, bond yields are usually rising but more slowly than short-term interest rates are, so the yield curve flattens. Private sector borrowing puts upward pressure on rates while fiscal balances typically improve
Equity returns :
In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, stocks typically rise but are subject to high volatility as investors become nervous about the restrictive monetary policy and signs of a looming economic slowdown. Cyclical assets may underperform while inflation hedges, such as commodities, outperform.
Short-term interest rates :
In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, short-term interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes restrictive because the economy is increasingly in danger of overheating. The central bank may aim for a soft landing
债券收益率:
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段，债券收益率通常会上升，但比短期利率上升的速度要慢，因此收益率曲线会变平。私人部门给借贷给利率带来上行压力，而财政平衡通常会改善。
股权回报率:
在商业周期扩张的后期阶段，股市通常会上涨，但由于投资者对限制性货币政策和经济放缓迹象感到紧张，股市会出现高波动性。周期性资产可能表现不佳，而通胀对冲资产，如大宗商品，则表现出色。
短期利率:
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段，由于经济日益面临过热的危险，货币政策变趋紧，短期利率通常会上升。央行可能以软着陆为目标。
the firm’s chief economist predicts that the economy will enter the late expansion phase of the business cycle in the next 12 months.
it means that there will be a restrictive monetary policy.
bond yield:
the bond yield will become flatten.
equity returns
because the business cycle will in the late expansion phrase. so the equity assets will perform bad in the future. so equity returns will become lower than before.
short interest rate
so the short interest rate will be higher in the future.
