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积极向上 · 2023年05月13日

KRD

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NO.PZ202112010200000702

问题如下:

Which of the following statements best characterizes how the active portfolio is positioned for yield curve changes relative to the index portfolio?

选项:

A.

The active portfolio is positioned to benefit from a bear steepening of the yield curve versus the benchmark portfolio.

B.

The active portfolio is positioned to benefit from a positive butterfly movement in the shape of the yield curve versus the index.

C.

The active portfolio is positioned to benefit from yield curve flattening versus the index.

解释:

B is correct. A positive butterfly indicates a decrease in the butterfly spread due to an expected rise in short- and long-term yields-to-maturity combined with a lower medium-term yield-to-maturity.

Since the active portfolio is short duration versus the index in the 2-year, 5-year, and 30-year maturities and long duration in the 10-year, it will generate excess return if the butterfly spread falls.


A选项说的是收益率曲线steepen,可以看成短期利率相对长期利率是下降的,那么只有短期KRD:active >benchmark;长期KRD:active<benchmark时,才会outperform,所以A不正确。


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A选项说的是

bear steepening,也就是短期利率和长期利率都是上升的,只不过长期利率上升的更加快,

那么长期而言,KRD active需要小于benchmark,

短期而言,也应该KRD active小于benchmark,不是吗?


请老师详细解释一下

2 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa015 · 2023年05月15日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


题目问的意思是,什么情况下,会有表格中的active 与index 两个portfolio,也就是说哪种曲线预期下,当前状态的active 会获利最大。

解题的关键是比较不同期限active 与index的KRD

如果某个期限的active KRD>index KRD,说明预测这个期限的利率是下降的;

如果某个期限的active KRD<index KRD,说明预测这个期限的利率是上涨的。

题目中active KRD<index KRD的期限有:2y,5y,30y;active KRD>index KRD的期限有:10y,

也就意味着,预测长期和短期利率是上涨的,中期利率是下降的,这种曲线形状的变化,就是positive butterfly,所以选择B 。


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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

hyi725 · 2023年07月31日

如果某个期限的active KRD>index KRD,说明预测这个期限的利率是下降的; 如果某个期限的active KRD<index KRD,说明预测这个期限的利率是上涨的。 为什么??怎么感觉因果关系倒置了

pzqa015 · 2023年08月01日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


根据△P/P=-MD*△y,如果预测利率下降,应该增加duration,如果预测利率上涨,应该降低duration。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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