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nuankaka · 2023年02月05日

prudence bias 是否需要掌握

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NO.PZ202206070100000103

问题如下:

O’Reilly’s explanation for the anchoring bias and the prudence bias is most likely incorrect?

选项:

A.for both.

B.only for the prudence bias.

C.only for the anchoring bias.

解释:

Solution

A is correct. Both of O’Reilly’s explanations are incorrect. His description of the prudence bias is incorrect—he is referring to the confirmation bias. The prudence bias is the tendency to temper forecasts so that they do not appear extreme or the tendency to be overly cautious in forecasting. His explanation of the anchoring bias is also incorrect. The anchoring bias is the tendency of the mind to give disproportionate weight to the first information it receives on a topic: initial impressions, estimates, or data, anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments.

B is incorrect. His description of the prudence bias is incorrect—he is referring to the confirmation bias.

C is incorrect. O’Reilly’s statement regarding the anchoring trap is incorrect. This is a description of availability bias.

A是正确的。奥莱利的两种解释都是不正确的。他对审慎偏差的描述是不正确的——他指的是确认偏差。审慎偏差是指为使预测不显得极端而调整预测的倾向,或预测时过于谨慎的倾向。他对锚定偏差的解释也是不正确的。锚定偏误是一种倾向,即大脑会对接收到的关于某个主题的第一个信息给予不成比例的权重:最初的印象、估计或数据,从而锚定随后的想法和判断。

B是不正确的。他对审慎偏差的描述是不正确的——他指的是确认偏差。

C是不正确的。奥莱利关于锚定陷阱的声明是不正确的。这是对可得性偏差的描述。

prudence bias 是否需要掌握? 如果是的话 在哪个视频里面提到呀。谢谢

1 个答案
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源_品职助教 · 2023年02月06日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


心里偏差这块在经济学中不是重点,一般考试考这部分会在行为经济学里考,而非经济学里考察。

prudence bias 本身在经济中也没有作为一个知识点单独论述,

当然也不能百分百排除协会抽风突然考到的情况,只能说考察的概率比较小。

prudence bias 在经济基础班讲义例题P24页中有提及,同学可以查看讲义对应视频进行参考。

不客气~


----------------------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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