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Esther🏵🎠🗝招财🐱 · 2023年02月03日

The correlation of expected defaults on the collateral

xhibit 1

COF Portfolio Holdings as of 12/31/xx

 

Portfolio (%)

Benchmark (%)

Investment-Grade Credit

82

100

Emerging Market Credit

5

0

High Yield

3

0

Collateralized Debt Obligations

   Senior Tranche (Class A)

–10

0

   Subordinated Tranche (Class B)

10

0

Mortgage-Backed Securities

10

0[EF1] 

Total

100

100

 

Based on Choate’s final comments and the COF portfolio positions in Exhibit 1, Choate is most likely expecting:

  1. improved real estate markets and higher interest rate volatility.
  2. lower interest rate volatility and increasing default correlations.
  3. lower interest rate volatility and decreasing default correlations.

B is correct. Choate expresses his belief that market expectations of interest rate volatility will decrease, so he buys agency MBS in the COF portfolio. The correlation of expected defaults on the collateral of a CDO affects the relative value between the senior and subordinated tranches; as default correlations increase, the value of mezzanine tranches usually increases relative to the value of senior tranches. Because he expects the correlation to be highly positive, he can try to profit by selling the lower yielding (or selling short) Class A and buying the higher yielding Class B.


老师,请问为什么short 一级债long 二级是一种expectations of interest rate volatility will decreasese??

3 个答案

pzqa015 · 2023年02月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Senior Tranche (Class A)一级债; Subordinated Tranche (Class B)二级债,题干中是写short10份Along 10份B

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这不是一级债和二级债,是优先级和次级。

如果预期default correlation上升,应该short senior,long subordinate,因为违约概率系数的话,二者都有可能违约,但是subordinate卖的相对更便宜。

如果预期default correlation下降,应该long senior,short subordinate,因为违约系数下降的话,就是senior不违约,subordinate违约。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

pzqa015 · 2023年02月04日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


老师得意思是题眼在MBS上,因为觉得波动率会下降?

---

是的

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

pzqa015 · 2023年02月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


一级债,二级债是什么意思? expectation of interest rate volatility will decrease会导致买MBS,这道题目有一级债和二级债的信息吗?

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

Esther🏵🎠🗝招财🐱 · 2023年02月04日

老师得意思是题眼在MBS上,因为觉得波动率会下降?

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