题目和正文没有读懂，麻烦老师解答一下，谢谢！

NO.PZ2022052202000002

问题如下：

In the 1980s, Japan was viewed by many FMPs as the model economy. Although its growth began to decelerate sharply by 1990, it was not until the mid to late 1990s that FMPs’ GDP forecasts were consistently achieved.

By taking several years to adapt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibited which behavioral bias?

选项：

Mental accounting

Overconfidence

Conservatism

解释：

C is correct. Conservatism bias results in maintain or only slowly updating views and forecasts despite the presence of new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to update forecasts, despite materially different new information for several years.

题目和正文没有读懂，麻烦老师解答一下，谢谢！

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王琛_品职助教 · 2022年10月10日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：

上个世纪 80 年代，日本经济高速发展，被 FMPs (Financial Market Participants) 金融市场参与者，比如分析师，视为经济体的典范

1990 开始，日本经济的发展速度急剧下降，但是直到 90 年代中后期，即 1995 年 - 1999 年，分析师对日本经济的预测，才与实际情况一致

比如之前高速发展的时候，预测 GDP 的增速都是 10%，但是 1990 年开始，明明增速已经下降，但是一直过了 5 年，分析师才调整预测 GDP 的增速和实际一致，比如 3%

反映的行为偏差是保守性偏差，即使有了新的信息，分析师依旧维持原有的观点，或者缓慢的更新观点

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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NO.PZ2022052202000002 问题如下 In the 1980s, Japwviewemany FMPs the mol economy. Although its growth begto celerate sharply 1990, it wnot until the mito late 1990s thFMPs’ G forecasts were consistently achieve taking severyears to apt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibitewhibehaviorbias? A.Mentaccounting B.Overconfin C.Conservatism C is correct. Conservatism biresults in maintain or only slowly upting views anforecasts spite the presenof new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to upte forecasts, spite materially fferent new information for severyears. 老师请问这两者的区别是什么呢？Conservatism bias和Representativeness biasConservatism bias反映的行为偏差是保守性偏差，即使有了新的信息，分析师依旧维持原有的观点，或者缓慢的更新观点；那Representativeness bias呢？

2022-12-17 18:21 1 · 回答

题目和正文没有读懂，麻烦老师解答一下，谢谢！

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