NO.PZ2022052301000011
问题如下：
Arzac interviews Christine Torok, who has more than 20 years of experience as an equity analyst following the banking industry. Torok considers herself to be one of the most sought after analysts in the market, ranking in the top five analysts in the industry year after year. Her earnings forecasts have tended to be within 1% of actual results. She attributes the accuracy to her firm’s highly complex forecast models, including sensitivity analysis and the confirmation of similar information sourced from multiple databases. She is regularly asked to speak at investment conferences and on TV to make comments on financial securities.
Given Torok’s analysis of the banking industry, she least likely exhibited which of the following behavioral biases?
选项：
A.Self-attribution
Overconfidence
Illusion of control
解释：
Self-attribution bias is a bias in which people take personal credit for successes and attribute failures to external factors outside the individual’s control. There is no evidence she takes personal credit for her success. Torok actually credits the firm’s financial models for the accuracy of the forecasts.
B is incorrect because Torok is likely overconfident given that she considers herself to be one of the top five analysts in the market and being asked to speak at banking conferences and on TV. She also sources additional information similar in nature, so it is unlikely to increase the accuracy of her forecast but instead reinforces her confidence in that forecast.
C is incorrect because Torok may have been subject to the illusion of control due to using highly complex forecast models. Excess of information cannot eliminate the risk in a model or the modeling process.
Self-attribution 不就是 overconfidence bias的一种吗？
