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郎布斯吃苹果 · 2022年08月17日

到底怎么做选择?

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NO.PZ202105270100000502

问题如下:

Based on expectations for changes in integration with the global market, all else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that Bader should shift capital from Country A to:

选项:

A.only Country B.

B.only Country C.

C.both Countries B and C.

解释:

B is correct.

Bader expects the equity market in Country C (an emerging market) to become more fully integrated with the global market while Country A (a developed market) remains highly integrated. All else being equal, the Singer– Terhaar model implies that when a market becomes more globally integrated (segmented), its required return should decline (rise). As prices adjust to a lower (higher) required return, the market should deliver an even higher (lower) return than was previously expected or required by the market. Therefore, the allocation to markets that are moving toward integration should be increased. If a market is moving toward integration, its increased allocation will come at the expense of markets that are already highly integrated. This will typically entail a shift from developed markets to emerging markets.

Bader预计,C国(新兴市场)的股票市场将与全球市场更加全面地融合,而A国(发达市场)的股票市场仍将高度融合。在其他条件相同的情况下,Singer - Terhaar模型表明,当一个市场变得更加全球一体化(细分)时,其所需回报应该下降(上升)。当价格调整到一个更低(更高)的要求回报时,市场应该提供比先前预期或市场要求更高(更低)的回报。因此,应该增加对正在走向一体化的市场的配置。如果一个市场正在走向一体化,其配置的增加将以已经高度一体化的市场为代价。这需要从发达市场转向新兴市场。


是选择更分割的国家,因为风险更高的要求回报率高?还是选择更整合的国家,因为风险低,回报低,折现出来的资产价值会提高?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年08月17日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:




本题要选的是要投资由分散走向整合的国家。

从分割到整合的过程中,C国的会变得越来越好,并且该国的投资也被分散化了,所以它的风险在在降低。

所以投资者对于该国的风险溢价也在降低。那么该国投资的要求回报率(折现率)就在降低。

那么在这个过程中,C国资产价格就是在上升的。投资者就可以享受价格上涨带来的收益。

所以应该选择把资产从高度整合的国家调往目前比较分割,但是未来会整合的C国。

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