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小雨Rainie · 2022年08月16日

这道题思考时有标价方式的干扰,该如何理解?

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


老师,这道题里我一直在联想标价方式是DM/EM还是EM/DM,然后再用公式判断是上升还是下降,那根据这道题,我理解应该是DM/EM,但这又是如何从题目中解读出来的呢?

3 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年11月09日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


啊哈,明白了,谢谢老师!

谢谢同学的认可!老师和同学一起努力,一起加油!

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年11月08日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


请问这道题为啥标价方式是DM/EM?另外,为啥解题需要知道标价方式是DM/EM,不知道此题标价方式也能判断出C选项吧?

Hello,亲爱的同学!

同学先补充一个关于汇率的知识点

/后为base currency,/前为计价currency。因此我们的汇率表达式为:计价currency/base currency。

我们很喜欢说的升值和贬值,是针对base currency


在此知识点的基础上,我们再看本题:

本题里有段内容说到:

All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:

这句话问的是,什么情况下会引起EM贬值。

因为我们通常说的升值贬值,是指base currency,所以我们在分析的时候,就可以把EM作为base currency。此时汇率表达式为DM/EM。


当然不知道此标价方式也不影响解题,只是我们在思考的时候,就可以使用DM/EM为基础来思考。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

𝒜𝒩𝒥𝒜 安雅🎃 · 2022年11月08日

啊哈,明白了,谢谢老师!

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年08月17日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题里我一直在联想标价方式是DM/EM还是EM/DM,然后再用公式判断是上升还是下降,

理解正确,


那根据这道题,我理解应该是DM/EM,但这又是如何从题目中解读出来的呢?

发展中国家利率高,发达国家利率低。利率高的那个国家,就是发展中国家。



本题知识点在基础班讲义67页,考点是The Impact of Balance of Payments Flows



解释一下:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 — 风险溢价之差。




可以这样理解:

就是说对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对利率和风险因素进行区分,


实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。

如果风险溢价比较高,意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。


强化班的话,是在第9页,BOP对汇率的影响,红框部分。



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𝒜𝒩𝒥𝒜 安雅🎃 · 2022年11月08日

请问这道题为啥标价方式是DM/EM?另外,为啥解题需要知道标价方式是DM/EM,不知道此题标价方式也能判断出C选项吧?

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