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Y.K · 2022年07月20日

为什么Debt/Income会涨？

  1. CFA I
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2021052601000015

问题如下：

Which of the following is most likely to increase after an increase in aggregate real personal income?

选项：

A.Equity prices B.Building permits for new private housing units C.The ratio of consumer installment debt to income

解释：

C is correct. Aggregate real personal income is a coincident indicator of the business cycle, and the ratio of consumer installment debt to income is a lagging indicator. Increases in the ratio of consumer installment debt follow increases in average aggregate income during the typical business cycle.

个人实际收入总额是景气周期的同步指标，而消费者分期付款债务与收入的比率则是滞后性指标。在典型的商业周期中，消费者分期付款债务比率的增加伴随着平均总收入的增加。


我理解Debt/Income是滞后指标，但是随着经济变好，Income增加，Debt/Income不是会下降吗，为什么Increase？

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年07月20日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


同学要搞清楚这种问法：increase after an increase in aggregate real personal income，问的就是滞后指标，那么选一个滞后指标就可以。

经济一开始上涨的时候，Debt/Income会下降。随着经济进一步回升，Debt/Income也会跟着上升。这就是滞后指标的含义。

虽然debt会上升，income也会上升，但是比值仍然是上升的。理由是认为，debt一旦开始上升，会比income的上升更快，所以才会引起比值上升。同学想一想，在同学涨工资的时候，是不是很开心，然后信用卡消费上升得更快呢。


根据强化讲义32页：The ratio of consumer installment debt to income属于经济的滞后指标。





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