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Ethan · 2022年06月06日

感觉答案说的有问题

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202001210200000108

问题如下:

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert

B.

flatten

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

这题说curve反映slowdown的情况,那就是flat或inverted。bond yields像contraction的情况,那就是长端利率下降。但没说短端利率怎么样,按逻辑应该是继续符合curve反映slowdown的情况,也就是仍然较高。那curve应该更inverted才对。

4 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年06月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:



对的,要理解为yield curve反映,此时是把yield curve看做一个整体。而非分开来认为是长端利率怎么样了。

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源_品职助教 · 2022年06月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:



你也可以通过做题总结一下。比如这题就是代表收益率曲线。

之后你做其他协会出的题时,碰到给出bond yield,问收益率曲线变化时,再看看有没有bond yield是说yield的情况

应该是没有上述这种情况。如果有,可以比较下题目两者区别。不清楚可以到时候在发上来一起讨论。

就考察收益率曲线情况而言,题目一般是通过所处经济环境来判断,

而非让你分别判断长短期利率情况来考察。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2022年06月09日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


的,关键就看有没有这个条件,多数情况是有的。所以直接套用“再投资效应(收益)造成的资本损失将大致抵消”的结论。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2022年06月07日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:



这题说的是依据Based on Observation 3做出结论

Observation 3说的是Y过当前是SLOWDOWN,但是收益率曲线要开始反映contractionary conditions了。这里的BOND就是代指收益率曲线。

所以题目其实问的是contractionary而非SLOWDOWN。

而且问题也是Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to,当前SLOWDOWN,接下来会怎么样( in the near term to)

这是原版书习题,要按照官方思路来解题。


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